YX 3456 · BTV → EWR

departs 6:04 AM ET · arrives 7:36 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

EWR (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3456 · BTV → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?