YX 3469 · EWR → PIT

departs 5:54 PM ET · arrives 7:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,629 ft Visibility9.28571 mi Precip0.01 in

PIT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3469 · EWR → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?