Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 3469 · IND → EWR
departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±11 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at EWR that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.