Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3500 · DTW → IAD
departs 10:13 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.