Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3502 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 3502 · EYW → EWR

departs 2:33 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EYW is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3502 · EYW → EWR

Odds over time