Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3508
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3508 · ORF → EWR
departs 10:47 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1.33333 mi Precip 0.28 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.