YX 3508 · SDF → IAD

departs 10:07 AM ET · arrives 12:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at IAD that day

↑ SDF is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3508 · SDF → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?