Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3514 LANDED 6:52 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

YX 3514 · MCI → EWR

took off 3:30 PM CT · landed 6:52 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3514 · MCI → EWR

Odds over time