Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 3542 · HHH → ORD
departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 4:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HHH that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HHH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.14 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.