Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3558
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3558 · EWR → BTV
departs 1:48 PM ET · arrives 3:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BTV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BTV?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into BTV at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
BTV (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.