Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3573
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3573 · STL → EWR
departs 12:23 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at EWR that day
↑
12pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.