Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3574 LANDED 3:48 PM EDT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

YX 3574 · EWR → YQB

took off 2:38 PM ET · landed 3:48 PM EDT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at YQB more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into YQB at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

YQB (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3574 · EWR → YQB

Odds over time