Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3592
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3592 · EWR → ILM
departs 9:53 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.