Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3607
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 3607 · EWR → BUF
departs 4:37 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±7 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.