Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3630 · EWR → STL
departs 9:53 AM ET · arrives 11:41 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
STL is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at EWR that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.