Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3631 LANDED 5:49 PM MT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 3631 · ORD → ELP

took off 4:07 PM CT · landed 5:49 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ELP is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3631 · ORD → ELP

Odds over time