Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3685 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

YX 3685 · CVG → EWR

departs 7:30 AM ET · arrives 9:37 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3685 · CVG → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?