Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3693
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3693 · PHL → IAD
departs 6:10 AM ET · arrives 7:19 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi forecast at PHL that day
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IAD that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.