Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3698
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3698 · IAD → LGA
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at IAD that day
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.666667 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,467 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.