YX 4338 · LGA → MSN

took off 7:09 PM ET · landed 8:18 PM CT (scheduled 6:43 PM ET → 8:24 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4338 · LGA → MSN

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSN?