Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4379
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4379 · LGA → BUF
departs 9:07 AM ET · arrives 10:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sat 10/3 5%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.