YX 4380 · LGA → BNA

departs 2:57 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4380 · LGA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?