Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4381 · CHO → LGA
departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 4:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±11 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave CHO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
CHO is quiet at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CHO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.