YX 4386 · MCI → ORD

departs 7:21 AM CT · arrives 9:06 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4386 · MCI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?