YX 4397 · JFK → BOS

departs 3:11 PM ET · arrives 4:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4397 · JFK → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?