YX 4409 · LGA → IND

departs 3:04 PM ET · arrives 5:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±16 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,533 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4409 · LGA → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?