Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4418 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 4418 · AVL → LGA

departs 1:19 PM ET · arrives 2:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4418 · AVL → LGA

Odds over time