Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4418 · GRR → LGA
departs 1:16 PM ET · arrives 3:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±11 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.