Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4421 · GSO → LGA
departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±13 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.