Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4426 LANDED 8:54 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 4426 · OKC → LGA

took off 5:05 PM CT · landed 8:54 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4426 · OKC → LGA

Odds over time