YX 4427 · LGA → IND

departs 6:58 PM ET · arrives 9:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±17 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7.14286 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4427 · LGA → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?