Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4429 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 4429 · GRR → PHL

departs 1:31 PM ET · arrives 2:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4429 · GRR → PHL

Odds over time