Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4429 LANDED 12:33 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 4429 · PHL → GRR

took off 11:02 AM ET · landed 12:33 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↑ 10am departures from PHL are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4429 · PHL → GRR

Odds over time