YX 4431 · LGA → ORF

took off 9:16 AM ET · landed 10:12 AM ET (scheduled 9:25 AM ET → 11:05 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to ORF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4431 · LGA → ORF

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORF?