YX 4434 · ORD → ORF

departs 2:32 PM CT · arrives 5:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4434 · ORD → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?