Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4436 · LGA → RDU
departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 6:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±15 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.