YX 4457 · LGA → RIC

departs 8:55 AM ET · arrives 10:24 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at RIC that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4457 · LGA → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?