Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4470 · LGA → OKC
departs 1:37 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
OKC is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.