Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4470 · OKC → LGA
departs 4:58 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±9 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.