Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4471 · LGA → ORF
departs 3:51 PM ET · arrives 5:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.