Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4471 · ORF → LGA
departs 6:11 PM ET · arrives 7:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 51%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±14 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 1.2 mi Precip 0.04 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 933 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.