Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4475 LANDED 1:06 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

YX 4475 · BOS → ROC

took off 11:54 PM ET · landed 1:06 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 17h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ROC at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at BOS that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4475 · BOS → ROC

Odds over time