YX 4478 · PWM → ORD

departs 5:48 PM ET · arrives 7:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PWM are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4478 · PWM → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?