YX 4481 · LGA → BNA

departs 11:44 AM ET · arrives 1:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7.14286 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4481 · LGA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?