YX 4485 · LGA → RDU

departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±24 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,667 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4485 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?