Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4488
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4488 · PWM → ORD
departs 12:16 PM ET · arrives 2:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at PWM that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.04 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.