Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4493 · RDU → PIT
departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from RDU are often late
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.