Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 4494 · RDU → LGA
departs 8:44 AM ET · arrives 10:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RDU that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
8am departures from RDU are usually not late
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.