Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4503
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4503 · LGA → RIC
departs 5:18 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±16 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.