Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4508
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4508 · STL → LGA
departs 9:22 AM CT · arrives 12:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.